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Tuesday August 7, 1:53 pm Eastern Time, By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK, Aug. 7 (Reuters) - U.S. shoppers, concerned with a slowing economy, a volatile stock market and mounting corporate

layoffs, are likely to have shunned malls in July, a move analysts expect to have bolstered sales of food, household detergents and cosmetics at discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc..

``The whole U.S. macro-economic picture is problematic and contributing to consumer apprehension,'' Todd Slater, a retail analyst at

Lazard LLC," said. On Thursday, most U.S. retailers will report July same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year -- a measure analysts expect to yield further evidence of the rough times faced by specialty retailers and department stores this year.

But sales at discounters and warehouse clubs are expected to have trended higher in July, compared to disappointing sales seen reported by department stores and apparel chains like Gap Inc. and Intimate Brands Inc., owner of lingerie retailer Victoria's Secret.

Analysts said discounters may even surpass their July sales estimates, helped not only by the search for bargains, but also by some spending from the initial batch of tax rebate checks. On July 20, the first rebate checks from President George W. Bush's $38 billion tax cut begun to pay off for discounters as value-driven U.S. shoppers searched for bargains on everyday essentials.

SOLID SALES FROM DISCOUNTERS

``We expect July same-store sales to be disappointing at the department stores and solid at the discounters, as apparel spending stayed muted,'' Shari Eberts, a retail industry analyst at J.P. Morgan said in a research note.

Even though July is traditionally a month which retailers use to clear racks of summer merchandise in time for the back-to-school and fall

seasons, analysts said U.S. shoppers are unlikely to have been enticed by the heavy markdowns for items they see as nonessential. Paramount in their minds is the jobs situation which shows no sign of letting up.

Job cut announcements from corporate America soared 65 percent to a record in July from June, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. It said the jump it announced on Monday was the highest single-monthly job-cut total it ever recorded.

The firm said job cut announcements rose to 205,975 in July, up from 124,852 in June, more than three times the number announced during the first six months of last year.

``American consumers have become more rational in their expenditure. They continue to spend, but have made a deliberate attempt to achieve obvious savings,'' said Bill Dreher, an analyst at Robertson Stephens.

Analysts expect Wal-Mart, the nation's largest discount store chain ahead of Kmart Corp, to report July same-store sales up by 4 to 8 percent, compared with a rise of 6.5 percent in the same month a year-ago and ahead of the company's own forecast of 3 to 5 percent.

TAX REFUND, A SMALL SPUR?

Wal-Mart said a week ago it had seen between 25 to 30 percent of the tax checks being used right away at its stores, with a surprise spurt in sales of items like air conditioners, DVD players and video game hardware.

``The rebate checks are a great shot in the arm for consumer spending, but they are being spent where there's already customer traffic and that's at your discount and warehouse club stores,'' said Dreher.

Bush's tax deal provides for a $300 refund for a single taxpayer and $600 for married couples. Analysts, however, also see most consumers putting part of the cash windfall aside for credit cards, home and auto debts.

Kmart, whose same-store sales have been hampered somewhat by its store remodeling drive, is seen posting July same-store sales up 1 to 3 percent, compared with a 2.8 percent increase a year ago, and the company's forecast of nil to 2 percent.

Warehouse clubs -- whose motto is often 'buy in bulk and save', are expected to have done well in July, with Costco Wholesale Corp.

seen posting same-store sales up about 4 to 6 percent, in line with the company's plan, helped by strong demand for consumables. For July 2000 it reported same-store sales up 9 percent.

GAP SEEN CHALLENGED

But clothing retailers, who have faced sluggish sales and profits since the fourth quarter of 2000, July is seen as dreary as recorded sales in June. Gap, which Slater at Lazard cut to outperform from a buy on Tuesday, is expected to post a sales decline of 4 to 9 percent, compared with a year-earlier drop of 1 percent. ``We believe Gap continues to struggle across all of its divisions, with Old Navy and Banana Republic demonstrating the greatest weakness. As a result, we expect the back half of the year to be very challenging for the company overall,'' Jeffrey Klinefelter, a U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst said in a research note.

Federated Department Stores Inc. , the operator of Macy's and Bloomingdale's chains, is seen posting sales down 4 to 6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in July of 2000. The retailer had initially expected a sales decrease of only 2 percent. Approximate ranges of Wall Street analysts' same-store sales estimates for major U.S. retailers follow. All numbers are expressed in percentage terms.

July 2001 Estimates Year-ago actual

Wal-Mart 4 to 8 pct 6.5 pct

Target Corp. 1 to 3 pct 3.7 pct

Kohl's Corp. 4 to 8 pct 6.7 pct

Gap Inc. -4 to -9 pct -1.0 pct

Federated -4 to -6 pct 1.6 pct

Sears, Roebuck & Co. -1 to -3 pct 1.8 pct

Kmart Corp. 1 to 3 pct 2.8 pct

May Dept. Stores -2 to 0 pct -1.6 pct

Costco Wholesale Corp 4 to 6 pct 9.0 pct